Three ways Cuba crisis could play out after US indictment of Raúl Castro

“We’ll engage with the Cubans… at the end of the day they need to make a decision. Their system just doesn’t work,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Florida on Thursday, adding that the administration’s preference is a “negotiated agreement”.

The changes that the US wants could include a pledge to open up the economy, invite more foreign investment and involvement by Cuban exile groups, as well as a commitment to end the presence of Russian or Chinese intelligence agencies on the island.

Importantly, these changes could leave Cuba’s government largely intact.

“Just like they wanted to avoid instability in Venezuela, they want to avoid instability in Cuba,” said Michael Shifter, a professor of Latin American studies at Georgetown University and the former head of the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank.

“Forcing a regime change would be too risky for that,” he added.

Several experts contacted by the BBC said that the challenge for the Trump administration is that there is no immediately obvious figure waiting in the wings inside Cuba.

“I don’t think there’s an obvious Delcy Rodriguez in Cuba, and power works differently in Cuba than in Venezuela,” Shifter said. “It’s hard to find what they’re looking for, but I do think they’re looking for some sort of governing structure.”

Cuba could collapse

A third possibility is that Cuba buckles under the weight of the massive economic pressure it is facing, which has already led to hours-long daily blackouts and massive food shortages on the island.

“There will be no escalation. I don’t think it’s necessary,” Trump said this week. “The place is falling apart. It’s a disaster, and they have lost control to some extent.”

Experts, however, paint a far more complicated picture in which the mechanisms of Cuban government control over its populace remain largely intact, even during a difficult economic period.

“You have to distinguish between the Cuban economy and the Cuban state and government,” Shifter said. “The Cuban economy can collapse, and is collapsing… but the state still functions, especially on the security side.”

Any state collapse could also pose a challenge to the Trump administration if large numbers of Cubans fled the country, particularly towards the US.

More recent Cuban arrivals have not been spared from a lack of access to political asylum and other immigration restrictions during the Trump administration.

“If there’s a collapse, you’re going to see a big portion of the Cuban population do everything they can to get away, the same way they have from Haiti over the years,” Isacson said.

“Florida is the closest place, but I would also expect to see some people make their way to Mexico.”

Isacson added that he was “surprised” such an outflux had not already begun.

“People are probably subsisting on 1,000 or 1,500 calories a day, and are not able to get basic healthcare,” he said. “You’d think that people would already be building their boats.”